Thomas Cook (I) (THOMASCOOK)
CyclicalFairStock Score: 39/100 — MIXED
Score breakdown: P/E: 2/3 · ROCE: 1/2 · Growth: 2/2 · Dividend: 0/1
Key Financials
| Current Price | ₹105.88 |
| Market Cap | ₹5,003.08 Cr |
| P/E Ratio | 22.62 |
| ROCE | 18.69% |
| ROE | 6.09% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% |
| Profit Growth | -0.6% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 |
| Sales Growth | -13.1% |
| Promoter Holding | 63.83% |
| 52-Week Range | ₹86.35 — ₹180.2 |
| Sector | Leisure Services |
| Book Value | ₹54.67 |
Strengths
- Promoter holding of 63.83% aligns management interests with minority shareholders
- Debt/equity of 0.22 is conservative, and ROCE of 18.69% suggests efficient capital use
- Piotroski F-score of 7/9 indicates improving financial health
- Profit growth of 20.10% is strong despite muted sales growth of 4.11%
Concerns
- Low ROE of 6.09% and thin latest-quarter net margin of about 2.1% indicate weak shareholder-level returns
- P/E of 19.19 and P/B of 2.43 leave little margin of safety
- Sales growth of just 4.11% and dividend yield of 0.44% offer limited organic or income support
- The wide 52-week range of ₹86.35 to ₹181.55 highlights cyclicality and earnings volatility
AI Analysis
At ₹99.74, Thomas Cook is priced at 19.19 times earnings, yet this is not a business with the economics I seek. Travel and tourism is inherently cyclical; the 52-week range from ₹86.35 to ₹181.55 tells me earnings and sentiment swing violently. Sales growth is modest at 4.11%, and the latest quarter's net margin is only about 2.1% (₹45 Cr profit on ₹2,146 Cr sales). That is a high-volume, low-margin operation, and it offers little pricing-power moat. Yes, promoter holding at 63.83% is reassuring, and debt/equity of 0.22 keeps the balance sheet conservative. ROCE of 18.69% looks decent, but the return to shareholders is weak: ROE is just 6.09%, and the dividend yield is only 0.44%. The Piotroski score of 7/9 suggests recent financial health is improving, but I cannot pay 19 times earnings for that. The PEG ratio of 1.59 indicates the 20.10% profit growth is already reflected in the price. Book value is ₹40.98, so paying ₹99.74 means over 2.4 times book—no margin of safety. If travel demand stumbles, profits could compress as quickly as they recovered. I would need a lower price, or evidence of durable growth and higher returns on equity, before treating Thomas Cook as a candidate. It's a cyclical play, not a compounder. In Buffett's words: be fearful when others are greedy. At this valuation, the market is not offering me a bargain; it is asking me to extrapolate a cyclical upturn.
Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer