TCPL Packaging (TCPLPACK)
CyclicalFairStock Score: 40/100 — MIXED
Score breakdown: P/E: 1/3 · ROCE: 1/2 · Growth: 0/2 · Dividend: 0/1
Key Financials
| Current Price | ₹4,088.8 |
| Market Cap | ₹3,713 Cr |
| P/E Ratio | 38.02 |
| ROCE | 20.03% |
| ROE | 19.28% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.61% |
| Profit Growth | 79.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.88 |
| Sales Growth | 16.1% |
| Promoter Holding | 55.74% |
| 52-Week Range | ₹2,200 — ₹4,427 |
| Sector | Industrial Products |
| Book Value | ₹789.87 |
Strengths
- ROE of 19.28% and ROCE of 20.03% are strong
- Promoter holding of 55.74% ensures alignment with minority shareholders
- Modest dividend yield of 1.13% provides some income support
- Positive absolute profitability: ₹453 Cr quarterly sales and ₹25 Cr net profit
Concerns
- Sales growth is negative at -1.02% and profit growth is down -14.84%
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals deteriorating financial health
- P/E of 20.39 and P/B of 4.13 leave little margin of safety for shrinking earnings
- FairStock Score of 9/100 flags the stock as risky
AI Analysis
Let me start with what I like. TCPL Packaging earns a return on equity of 19.28% and ROCE of 20.03%—those are respectable figures. Promoters own 55.74%, so interests are aligned. There is also a dividend, though modest at 1.13%. But as Graham taught, past returns are not enough. Sales growth is negative at -1.02%, and profit growth has fallen -14.84%. The latest quarter shows net profit of ₹25 Cr on sales of ₹453 Cr, so margins are under pressure. At ₹2,630, the stock trades at 20.39 times earnings and 4.13 times book value. That is not a bargain for a business whose earnings are shrinking. Book value is ₹636.17, but you are paying over four times that. Debt/equity of 1.03 is acceptable, but the Piotroski F-score of 3/9 is a red flag—it tells me operating efficiency and balance-sheet quality are deteriorating. The independent FairStock score of 9/100 says 'Risky'. I do not need to be clever. When profit and sales are both going backward, paying a premium multiple is the opposite of a margin of safety. The 52-week range of ₹2,200 to ₹4,427 shows real volatility; just because the stock is down from its peak does not make it cheap. I would wait for evidence of stabilisation—positive quarterly sales growth, better profit margins, and an improving F-score—before considering this. Packaging can be a decent business, but the current numbers do not demonstrate a moat strong enough to protect earnings. I will pass for now.
Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer