Rail Vikas (RVNL)

FairStock Score: 46/100 — MIXED

Score breakdown: P/E: 0/3 · ROCE: 1/2 · Growth: 1/2 · Dividend: 0/1

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I begin with Graham's question: what is this business worth, and what am I paying? Rail Vikas is a civil construction PSU with ₹47,403 Cr market cap at ₹227.35. It has a high promoter stake of 72.84%, debt/equity of 0.49, Altman Z 3.52, and Piotroski F 8/9—signs the balance sheet is not fragile. It generated ₹3,507 Cr free cash flow, earns ROE 11.98% and ROCE 14.72%, and latest quarter sales were ₹4,684 Cr with ₹324 Cr net profit. Profit growth of 21.72% is better than sales growth of 7.96%, but the 5-year revenue CAGR is only 6.52%, so this is not a compounding machine; it is a cyclical construction business tied to rail capex. The moat, if any, is its government linkage and high promoter holding, not pricing power. Now valuation: at P/E 52.63 and P/B 4.81 against book value of ₹47.25, I am paying a rich price. EV/EBITDA is 228.65, Graham Number is ₹75.37, and DCF intrinsic value is ₹201.45—below today's ₹227.35. The margin of safety is -319.74%, which in Graham's terms is no margin at all. A 1.51% dividend yield does not compensate. The 52-week range ₹187–₹400.70 shows the market's mood swings. FairStock score 46/100 mixed confirms not a clear bargain. I would wait for either a much lower price or evidence that revenue growth accelerates and returns on capital improve. Good financial health does not make an overvalued cyclical a bargain.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer