NTPC (NTPC)

FairStock Score: 50/100 — MIXED

Score breakdown: P/E: 2/3 · ROCE: 0/2 · Growth: 1/2 · Dividend: 1/1

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Here is what you need to know about NTPC. It is India's largest power-generation PSU, a stable utility name with a low P/E of about 10.4 and a dividend yield of 3.6 percent. The latest tape shows the stock around 298, just above its 52-week low of 292.2, while the headline data says 340 and the older quant engine used 402. That timestamp mismatch is the first thing to flag; I will anchor on the latest close because it is the most conservative. Fundamentally, NTPC is cash-generative but capital-heavy. Sales growth is only about 2.7 percent, and ROCE is just under 10 percent, which is low for a power producer. Debt-to-equity is 1.18, so the balance sheet is not light. On the positive side, profit growth is around 11 to 12 percent, the Piotroski F-score is strong, and the dividend yield at today's lower price is even better than the quoted 3.6 percent. Quantitatively, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model says the stock is mean-reverting with a half-life of about 9 days, but the z-score is neutral at 0.68 based on stale data. The latest price is about 5 percent below its 20-day average, which is mildly oversold. Volume signals are mixed: the five-day volume imbalance is almost 98 percent bullish, suggesting buyers are quietly active, but the volume anomaly ratio is only 0.47, meaning total volume is less than half the 20-day average. That tells me there is no strong institutional rush to buy yet. The pair with JSWENERGY shows NTPC is slightly cheap, but not by a large margin. For position sizing, I would not be aggressive. With daily volatility around 1.2 percent and a neutral mean-reversion signal, a half-Kelly trade should be limited to about 2 to 3 percent of your portfolio if you are taking a tactical entry. Longer-term income investors can build a full dividend position gradually, but they must accept potential drawdowns—the stock is already down about 28 percent from its 52-week high. My honest view is this: if you are a long-term income investor, NTPC near the 52-week low with a low P/E and high dividend is worth watching, but I would not chase it aggressively. The FairStock score is a mixed 4 out of 10, and the near-term momentum is negative. I would rate it a HOLD for now, and if you already hold it, focus on dividends and wait for volume to confirm a bottom.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer