M R P L (MRPL)

FairStock Score: 71/100 — STEADY

Score breakdown: P/E: 2/3 · ROCE: 0/2 · Growth: 2/2 · Dividend: 0/1

Key Financials

Strengths

• Promoter holding at 88.58% aligns management with minority shareholders
• Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates strong recent financial health
• ROE of 16.79% is decent for a capital-intensive refinery
• Altman Z-Score of 4.10 suggests low bankruptcy risk
• Free cash flow is positive at ₹938 Cr

Concerns

• ROCE of only 4.38% shows weak return on total capital employed
• EV/EBITDA of 190.99 is extremely high, indicating earnings are thin relative to enterprise value
• Price of ₹187.01 is well above Graham Number of ₹143.86, leaving negative margin of safety
• No dividend yield of 0.00% means shareholders receive no cash while waiting for cyclical recovery

AI Analysis

When I look at MRPL, I see a refinery, and a refinery is not the kind of franchise I normally want to own forever. It is a capital-intensive commodity business with limited pricing power. The 88.58% promoter holding is reassuring, and the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 tells me the recent financial health is solid. The Altman Z-Score of 4.10 also suggests no near-term bankruptcy risk. ROE of 16.79% looks respectable, but the ROCE of just 4.38% reveals the real truth: this business earns very little on its total capital employed. That is not a moat; that is a spread business at the mercy of refinery cracks and crude prices. The 164.32% profit growth on a 6.40% sales decline is typical of a cyclical turnaround, not a durable growth story. Five-year revenue CAGR of 24.26% shows expansion, but the debt-to-equity of 0.81 and zero dividend yield mean shareholders are not being paid to wait. Graham would demand a margin of safety, and I do not see one. The Graham Number is ₹143.86, while the price is ₹187.01, giving a margin of safety of negative 36.69%. Even if the DCF value is ₹286.61, I rely on tangible measures, and those tell me the stock is not cheap today. Free cash flow of ₹938 Cr is positive, but tiny relative to a ₹34,465 Cr market cap. The EV/EBITDA of 190.99 is alarming and suggests earnings quality is extremely volatile. This is a cyclical, not a stalwart. I would want a lower price and evidence of sustained refining margins before committing capital.

Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer