Motil.Oswal.Fin. (MOTILALOFS)

FairStock Score: 50/100 — MIXED

Score breakdown: P/E: 1/3 · ROCE: 1/2 · Growth: 1/2 · Dividend: 0/1

Key Financials

Strengths

• Promoter holding of 67.62% demonstrates strong insider alignment
• Five-year revenue CAGR of 18.13% reflects historical growth franchise
• ROE of 18.28% and ROCE of 18.67% indicate solid capital efficiency
• Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests healthy financial positioning
• Latest quarter net profit of ₹566 Cr shows current earnings capability

Concerns

• Sales growth of -21.04% and profit growth of -45.05% show severe cyclical slowdown
• Valuation is expensive: P/E of 21.54, P/B of 4.29, and EV/EBITDA of 116.24
• DCF intrinsic value of ₹21.68 and Graham Number of ₹375.72 imply deeply negative margin of safety at ₹790.80
• Debt/Equity of 1.22 and Altman Z-Score of 1.71 signal financial risk during downturn

AI Analysis

Motilal Oswal has built a recognized franchise in Indian broking, and promoter holding of 67.62% does align owner and minority interests. The five-year revenue CAGR of 18.13% proves it compounded well during the bull phase, and the latest quarter’s ₹2,112 Cr sales and ₹566 Cr net profit show the engine can still fire. But I must remember that stockbroking is a cyclical business. Sales are down 21.04% and profits are down 45.05%, and that is a clear warning that today’s earning power is not permanent. The ROE of 18.28% and ROCE of 18.67% are respectable, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the balance sheet is not deteriorating quickly. Yet the financial health is not conservative: debt-to-equity of 1.22, an Altman Z-score of 1.71, and free cash flow of only ₹138 Cr against a market cap of ₹43,628 Cr. More importantly, the price is not my friend. At ₹790.80, the P/E is 21.54 and P/B is 4.29, despite falling earnings. The Graham number of ₹375.72 sits far below the market price, and the DCF intrinsic value of ₹21.68 is even more extreme. EV/EBITDA of 116.24 tells me I am paying an enormous multiple for operating earnings. There is no margin of safety here; in fact, the margin of safety is deeply negative. Mr. Market is pricing this as a stable compounder, but the recent numbers say otherwise. I would rather miss the next rally than buy at a price that leaves no room for error, especially in a cyclical business. This is a decent enterprise, but not a compelling investment at today’s price.

Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer