H P C L (HINDPETRO)

FairStock Score: 85/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Score breakdown: P/E: 3/3 · ROCE: 0/2 · Growth: 2/2 · Dividend: 1/1

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I wear Graham's lens and Buffett's patience. HPCL at ₹373.50, market cap ₹79,474 Cr, is a Refineries & Marketing business with 54.90% promoter holding and a 6.49% dividend yield. The balance sheet gives me comfort: book value ₹308.04, P/B 1.21, debt/equity 0.85, Piotroski 8/9 and Altman Z 3.25. Free cash flow is ₹3,671 Cr, ROE is 30.11%, and sales grew 21.34%, while the 5-year revenue CAGR is 10.04%. The latest quarter still shows sales of ₹1.15 lakh Cr and net profit ₹4,011 Cr, so this is a large, profitable enterprise. Those are not lottery-ticket numbers. I would look for consistency, not one good quarter. Valuation is the argument. Graham Number is ₹625.56 and DCF intrinsic value is ₹923.64; the stated margin of safety is 29.86%. A PEG of 0.15 and FairStock score of 85/100 hint the market may be overly focused on the recent profit decline. But I cannot ignore P/E 47.64, EV/EBITDA 211.89 and profit growth -363.71%. Those ratios warn that earnings are either depressed or the current price is not cheap on cash earnings. ROCE 10.52% is only moderate, and refining/marketing is cyclical. The 52-week range ₹316.20–₹508.45 shows Mr. Market's mood swings. So I see a high-dividend, asset-backed cyclical with a margin of safety in asset/intrinsic-value terms, not a pristine compounder. I would demand a durable rebound in profit and ROCE before calling it a Buffett-style bargain.

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Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer