B P C L (BPCL)

FairStock Score: 92/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Score breakdown: P/E: 3/3 · ROCE: 1/2 · Growth: 2/2 · Dividend: 1/1

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I’m wearing my Buffett-Graham hat, and BPCL looks like a high-conviction cyclical value play. It is a refiner-marketer with a ₹1.36 lakh Cr market cap and quarterly sales of ₹1.19 lakh Cr. That scale, plus promoter holding of 52.98%, gives it staying power, but refineries and marketing is not a wide-moat business—earnings can swing with industry cycles. The balance sheet is stronger than I might expect: ROE 30.24%, ROCE 16.22%, debt/equity 0.54, FCF ₹4,498 Cr, Altman Z-Score 3.46, and Piotroski F-Score 8/9. The latest quarter net profit of ₹7,188 Cr is real, yet the stated profit growth of -164.70% warns me that profits are volatile. Valuation is the main attraction. At ₹319.45, P/E is 7.97, P/B is 1.36, book value is ₹234.37, dividend yield is 6.26%, and PEG is 0.33. Graham Number is ₹489.28, giving a 21.23% margin of safety, while DCF intrinsic value is ₹555. The 52-week range of ₹266.60–₹391.65 shows the market can swing. I don’t need perfection, only a price below conservative value. But EV/EBITDA at 112.06 is an outlier I must understand; it clashes with the low P/E and keeps me cautious. Sales growth of 23.33% and 5yr revenue CAGR of 9.12% are decent, but profits remain cyclical. With FairStock Score 92/100, I’d treat BPCL as a cyclical holding: buy with margin of safety, collect dividends, and monitor profit normalization, EV/EBITDA, and cash generation.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer