Xponential Fitness Inc. Class A Common Stock (XPOF)

FairStock Score: 45/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett-style investor, I start with business quality. Xponential is a franchisor of boutique fitness brands, so in theory it can earn good returns on capital with modest capital needs. FairStock's ROCE of 12.77% hints at some underlying economics, but the actual results are poor. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $66.0M, down from $76.2M in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, and net income was -$4.1M versus +$969,000. For FY2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $314.9M and net income was -$38.7M; for FY2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, net income was -$67.7M on $320.3M. The losses are enormous relative to the $202.6M market cap at the 2026-10-13 close. Financial health is ugly: trailing free cash flow is -$9.6M, FCF yield is -4.7%, Piotroski is 2/9, and Altman Z-score is -2.95. The negative Altman and negative P/E tell me the company depends on external capital or a rapid operational fix. FairStock's EV/EBITDA of 102.45 is not a bargain. The 52-week range of $3.57-$9.25 shows volatility and uncertainty. Growth trajectory: fiscal Q2 2026 revenue fell about 13% from fiscal Q2 2025, and net income swung to a loss. There is no durable moat evident in these numbers. A franchisor can have brand value, but losses, negative cash flow, and weak balance-sheet signals suggest the moat is not protecting profits. At $4.82, I see a speculative turnaround, not a margin-of-safety bargain. I would need evidence of positive cash generation and cost control before calling it cheap.

In plain English: Xponential Fitness sells franchise rights to boutique fitness brands such as Club Pilates, StretchLab, YogaSix, Pure Barre, and BFT. The business looks weak right now: sales fell in the latest quarter, it lost money, and it used more cash than it generated. At $4.82, the price looks expensive relative to those weak profits and cash flow.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer