Exagen Inc. Common Stock (XGN)

FairStock Score: 32/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Exagen as a Graham-style skeptic: I want proven earning power, a sound balance sheet, and a price that offers a margin of safety. Exagen sells AVISE-branded tests for complex autoimmune and rheumatic diseases, a niche with genuine medical need. But the financial record does not yet show a durable moat. Revenue has grown—fiscal 2023 revenue was $52.5M, fiscal 2024 was $55.6M, and fiscal 2025 was $66.6M. Yet net income was negative in each period: -$23.7M in fiscal 2023, -$15.1M in fiscal 2024, and -$20.0M in fiscal 2025. The latest report, fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, showed revenue of $19.9M and a net loss of $3.2M, or EPS -$0.13. That is better than fiscal Q2 2025, when revenue was $17.2M and the net loss was $4.4M, but the company still burns cash: trailing free cash flow was -$7.6M, a -3.7% FCF yield per FairStock. The balance sheet gives me pause. FairStock calculates debt-to-equity at 2.26, ROE at -113.82%, ROCE at -14.92%, and an Altman Z-Score of -4.61. At the 2026-10-13 close of $8.48, the market cap is $205.4M, with a negative P/E of -10.34 and a P/B of 16.63. FairStock's score is 32/100, and its Lynch category is none because of losses in each of the last four years. Revenue growth is encouraging, but without consistent profits and cash generation, the price is speculation on a future turnaround, not a Graham bargain.

In plain English: Exagen makes blood tests under the AVISE brand to help doctors diagnose autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. The business is growing sales, but it still loses money, burns cash, and carries a lot of debt for its size. At $8.48 on 2026-10-13, the shares look expensive compared with the company's weak profits and small accounting value.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer