Waste Connections Inc. Common Shares (WCN)

FairStock Score: 33/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Waste Connections is the kind of business I admire: it collects and disposes of non-hazardous waste under long-term contracts, owns landfills and transfer stations, and benefits from density and local barriers to entry. The need for waste removal is recurring and not very cyclical, and the 0.47 beta supports that defensiveness. But quality does not automatically mean value. At the 2026-10-13 close of $153.67, FairStock's calculations show a P/E of 37.03, P/B of 4.89, EV/EBITDA of 16.04 and a free cash flow yield of only 3.0%. The Graham Number is $54.16, leaving a margin of safety of -183.73%, so the price is well above what Graham-style asset and earnings math would justify. Recent filed results show the growth engine has cooled: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $2.6B, net income $296.4M and diluted EPS $1.17, versus fiscal Q2 2025 revenue of $2.4B, net income of $290.3M and diluted EPS of $1.12. Full-year FY2025 had revenue of $9.5B, net income of $1.1B and diluted EPS of $4.17. Returns are decent but not spectacular: ROE 13.03%, ROCE 5.49%, with D/E 1.22. The FairStock Lynch category is FAST GROWER based on 39.4% profit growth and 11.7% revenue growth over five years, and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, but the FairStock Score is 39/100. I see a durable franchise priced for much better than it is currently delivering.

In plain English: Waste Connections picks up and disposes of garbage and recyclables in the U.S. and Canada, mostly under repeat contracts, which makes its business fairly steady. The company is profitable and produces cash, but recent sales and earnings growth has been modest. Based on the numbers provided, the stock price looks expensive compared with the company's earnings, cash flow, and book value.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer