Vistra Corp. (VST)

FairStock Score: 58/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I ask whether a business is durable and priced with a margin of safety. Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The record is uneven. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $4.4B, net income was $305.0M, and diluted EPS was $0.76. Revenue rose from $3.8B in fiscal Q2 2025, but net income slipped from $327.0M and diluted EPS from $0.81. Fiscal Q1 2026 was much stronger: revenue was $5.0B, net income was $1.0B, and diluted EPS was $2.87. For full FY2025, revenue rose to $17.6B from $14.8B in FY2024, yet net income fell to $944.0M from $2.7B, and diluted EPS fell to $2.18 from $7.00. That volatility suggests commodity and market exposure more than a steady regulated utility. At the 2026-10-13 close of $162.36, FairStock calculates a P/E of 27.33, P/B of 18.14, ROE of 42.96%, ROCE of 5.89%, D/E of 3.73, Altman Z-Score of 1.05, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, FCF yield of 4.1%, EV/EBITDA of 11.29, and PEG of 0.06. The Graham Number is $46.70, leaving a margin of safety of -247.67%, so the price is far above asset earnings power. FairStock labels it a TURNAROUND, returned to profit after a loss within the last three years, and gives a 59/100 score. High ROE is flattered by leverage; weak ROCE and the low Altman score worry me. Growth is real, but I cannot call this a classic bargain.

In plain English: Vistra sells electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses and also runs power plants in the United States. Sales have grown, but profits have moved up and down and the company carries a lot of debt. At $162.36, the price looks expensive compared with the company's profits and net assets.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer