Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing one series A share with no par value (VIST)

FairStock Score: 82/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett/Graham style investor, I look first at what I can understand and what the numbers say. Vista Energy is an Argentine oil and gas producer centered on Vaca Muerta, a premier shale play, with additional assets in Mexico. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported $1.2 billion of revenue and $333.0 million of net income, a 26.96% net margin. The supplied figures show rapid revenue and profit growth, though I have only 0 years of filed annual history for a Lynch category, so durability is unproven. Returns are attractive: ROE is 29.79% and ROCE 10.00%, and trailing free cash flow is $288.8 million, a 3.9% FCF yield. The balance sheet gives me pause: debt-to-equity is 1.07 and the Altman Z-Score is 1.35, which is not a cushion. Piotroski is 7/9, a decent sign. Valuation, based on FairStock calculations at the 2026-10-13 close of $69.02, is not demanding: P/E 9.08, EV/EBITDA 4.61, PEG 0.22, and Graham Number $71.54, leaving only a 3.52% margin of safety. The company has a negative beta of -0.47, but that does not replace a margin of safety. A moat? Possibly low-cost shale acreage, but commodity prices and Argentina risk remain. Overall, this looks like a cheap, growing energy producer with high returns and real cash flow, but leverage, limited history, and cyclicality mean I would require a larger discount before calling it a Graham-style bargain.

In plain English: Vista Energy is an oil and gas producer focused on Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale field, with some operations in Mexico. The business looks strong right now: the latest quarter showed large sales, solid profit, and a high profit margin. At the recent price near $69, the shares look around fair value to slightly cheap compared with earnings, though debt and a short public record are reasons for caution.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer