Vista Gold Corp Common Stock (VGZ)

FairStock Score: 14/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for productive assets, honest accounting, and a margin of safety. Vista Gold is not yet a business in the ordinary sense. It is a development-stage gold company with 13 employees and a single flagship asset, Mt Todd in Australia. The filings show no revenue in fiscal 2023, 2024, or 2025, or in the quarters I can see for 2026. Results swing with non-operating items: net income was $11.2 million in fiscal 2024, then a $7.5 million loss in fiscal 2025, and diluted EPS of -$0.06. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, the loss was $3.1 million; in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, it was $3.0 million. Trailing free cash flow is -$8.1 million, a -2.1% FCF yield on a $378.1 million market cap. At the 2026-10-13 close of $2.59, FairStock reports a P/E of -43.17, P/B of 7.40, ROE of -26.41%, and ROCE of -19.80%. The Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and FairStock labels it a TURNAROUND because the latest year was a loss after an earlier profit. The Altman Z-Score of 134.22 is high, but with no revenue, negative cash flow, and no D/E figure, I cannot treat that as a conventional safety signal. A gold project can carry optionality, but without production, reserves, permits, or a financing plan in these figures, there is no demonstrable moat. I see a speculative asset play, not a Graham bargain.

In plain English: Vista Gold is a tiny development-stage gold company whose main asset is the Mt Todd project in Australia; it has 13 employees and reports no revenue. Recent filings show losses, including a $7.5 million loss in fiscal 2025, and it burned $8.1 million in cash over the trailing year. At $2.59, the stock looks expensive relative to its accounting value and current earnings, so the story depends mostly on future project progress rather than today's business results.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer