Upstart Holdings Inc. Common stock (UPST)

FairStock Score: 37/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Revenue growth of 30.7% demonstrates strong top-line momentum

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($9) with negative 254% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• High leverage at 2.37x debt-to-equity increases financial risk and interest expense burden
• Altman Z-Score of 0.8 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Upstart Holdings Inc. Common stock is a small-cap financial services company valued at $3.1 billion. The business generates $1.1 billion in annual revenue with a 1.7% net margin. From a quality standpoint, Upstart shows distressed Altman Z-Score of 0.8 warrants caution and modest 7% ROE. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 72.9x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($9) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 30.7% and profit growth of 776.4%. Our composite FairStock Score of 37/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Upstart's 31% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the financial services sector. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

At 73x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer