Upstart Holdings Inc. Common stock (UPST)

FairStock Score: 37/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Upstart as a lender dressed in AI clothing. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $364.7 million, net income $16.5 million, and diluted EPS $0.16. That is better than fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, when revenue was $257.3 million, net income $5.6 million, and diluted EPS $0.05. For fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $1.0 billion and net income $53.6 million, a swing from a fiscal 2024 loss of $128.6 million on $636.5 million of revenue in the year ended 2024-12-31. FairStock calls it a TURNAROUND, and the direction is real. But quality is uncertain. The latest quarter's net margin was only 4.53%, and trailing free cash flow was negative $305.1 million, a negative 13.2% FCF yield. Debt-to-equity is 2.58, Altman Z-score is 0.55, and Piotroski is 4/9, not a fortress. ROE is 7.94% and ROCE is 1.98%, both modest for the risk. The balance sheet and cash burn matter more than the AI story. On valuation, at the 2026-10-13 close of $23.83, FairStock shows a P/E of 45.83 and P/B of 2.91. The Graham Number is $9.79, implying a negative 143.41% margin of safety. Even with a PEG of 0.24, I cannot call this cheap on Graham terms. The market is paying for rapid future improvement. If credit costs stay controlled and revenue keeps compounding, the turnaround can justify attention. If not, the leverage and negative cash flow leave little room for error. I prefer a wider gap between price and proven earning power.

In plain English: Upstart is an AI lending platform that helps make personal and auto loans. The business is growing revenue and has returned to profit, but it still burns cash and carries a lot of debt. At $23.83 on 2026-10-13, the price looks expensive compared with the company's book value and a conservative earnings measure, so it is not a bargain based on these numbers.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer