United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

FairStock Score: 54/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Mr. Market is offering UPS at $94.79 as of 2026-10-13, an $80.7B company. I look at quality and price. UPS moves packages through U.S. domestic and international networks, a business that demands enormous scale and capital. The latest filed figures show pressure: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $22.8B, net income $604M, and diluted EPS $0.71. In fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, revenue was $21.2B, net income $1.3B, and diluted EPS $1.51. Revenue rose, but profit collapsed; the latest quarter margin was 2.65%. For fiscal year 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $88.7B, net income $5.6B, and diluted EPS $6.56, down from fiscal year 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, revenue $91.1B, net income $5.8B, diluted EPS $6.75, and fiscal year 2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, net income $6.7B and diluted EPS $7.80. That is erosion, not growth. Financial health is mixed. FairStock calculations show ROE 29.60%, but ROCE only 7.28%, debt-to-equity 1.90, Piotroski F-Score 4/9, and Altman Z-Score 1.64. The high ROE looks leveraged. Free cash flow is $5.5B, FCF yield 6.8%, and dividend yield 6.62%, attractive if sustainable; however, EPS is $5.38, so the payout looks stretched. Valuation: P/E 17.62 is not demanding, EV/EBITDA 9.67 is moderate, but P/B 5.36 and Graham Number $46.30 give a margin of safety of -104.73%. I want a discount to intrinsic worth, not a large premium. FairStock Score 54/100 and computed Lynch category STALWART—profit 32.9% a year over five years, revenue 0.9%—describe a mature business, but current profit trend is down. I would wait for margin recovery and debt reduction before calling this a bargain.

In plain English: UPS is a global package and freight delivery company with a huge workforce and network. It still produces billions in cash, but recent profits have dropped sharply and sales are flat to down. At $94.79, the stock does not look clearly cheap: the price is well above a conservative value based on its earnings and assets, even though the dividend yield is high.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer