Upstream Bio Inc. Common Stock (UPB)

FairStock Score: 38/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I have spent decades looking for businesses that earn predictable profits and can be valued with a margin of safety. Upstream Bio does not fit that mold. It is a clinical-stage biotech with no marketed product; in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, it reported revenue of $773,000 and a net loss of $39.7 million, or diluted EPS of $-0.73. For fiscal 2025, revenue was $2.9 million and net loss was $143.4 million; for fiscal 2024, revenue was $2.4 million and net loss was $62.8 million. Losses are widening, and trailing free cash flow is negative $136.5 million, a -70.2% FCF yield on the $194.4 million market cap at the 2026-10-13 close. The balance sheet has no debt (D/E 0.00), and FairStock's Altman Z-Score of 10.01 suggests near-term solvency is not the main issue. But FairStock's Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, ROE is -46.05%, and the P/E is -1.23 because there are no earnings. The P/B of 0.64 may look cheap, yet the book value is largely cash being spent on trials, not productive assets. The moat, if any, depends on verekitug's clinical results in severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and COPD—none of which are approved. Growth in revenue is tiny and erratic; the real growth option is binary trial data. As Graham would say, this is not an investment operation based on demonstrated earnings, but a speculation on future science. I would need a much larger discount or proof of durable cash generation before calling it a value opportunity.

In plain English: Upstream Bio is a small healthcare company trying to develop new medicines for severe breathing and sinus conditions. It brings in very little money and loses tens of millions of dollars each quarter, so the business itself does not look strong yet. The share price has dropped sharply over the past year, and while it looks cheap compared with its stated net assets, that cheapness is questionable because the company is still unproven and burning cash.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer