Twilio Inc. Class A Common Stock (TWLO)

FairStock Score: 49/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses that earn consistently and sell at a sensible price. Twilio is a customer engagement software platform; revenue grew from $4.2B in FY2023 to $4.5B in FY2024 to $5.1B in FY2025, and fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was $1.5B. That is respectable growth. More important, it has swung to profit: net income was -$1.0B in FY2023, -$109.4M in FY2024, $33.8M in FY2025, $90.1M in fiscal Q1 2026, and $1.1B in fiscal Q2 2026. The last figure is extraordinary and deserves skepticism until repeated, because FY2025 total profit was only $33.8M. Financial health looks sound: debt-to-equity is 0.12 and Altman Z-Score 13.47, though ROCE is only 2.06% and Piotroski is 4/9—not a fortress of profitability yet. The business may have switching costs once communications workflows are embedded, but the figures alone do not prove a wide moat; a 2.06% ROCE says competitive advantage is not yet showing in capital returns. Valuation offers no margin of safety. At the 2026-10-13 close of $281.59, FairStock's P/E is 38.89, P/B 4.82, EV/EBITDA 87.09, and FCF yield 2.3%. The Graham Number is $97.59, implying a -188.54% margin of safety. PEG of 0.11 looks cheap only because profit growth is measured off a turnaround base. Twilio fits the computed Lynch TURNAROUND category. I see improving revenue and cash generation, but I would need several quarters of normal, repeatable profits before calling this a bargain.

In plain English: Twilio provides software that helps businesses communicate with customers by messaging, voice, email, and video. The company has grown revenue and recently returned to profit, but its profit has been uneven and jumped sharply in one quarter. At the recent price, the stock looks expensive compared with the company's current earnings and cash flow.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer