Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (TVRD)

FairStock Score: 64/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I look first for a business that earns money and can defend itself. Tvardi is not that yet. It is a 12-employee clinical-stage biotech with no marketed product, trying to develop oral STAT3 inhibitors; lead TTI-101 is still in Phase 1b/2 for fibrosis-driven disease. The filed numbers show no durable profits: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was -$6.5M and diluted EPS -$0.69; fiscal Q1 2026 lost -$6.8M, or -$0.73 per share; FY2025 lost -$18.2M and FY2024 lost -$29.4M, versus -$118.5M in FY2023. Revenue was $7.1M in FY2024 and $21.0M in FY2023, but it is n/a in later filings. Free cash flow is -$25.0M over the trailing twelve months, a FairStock-calculated FCF yield of -180.4%, a severe burn against a $13.9M market cap. The balance sheet has low debt (D/E 0.02), but Piotroski 1/9 and Altman Z -8.73 both warn of financial fragility. The FairStock P/B is 0.67 and P/E is -0.36 at the 2026-10-13 close of $1.04, near the low end of the $0.93-$7.23 52-week range. Cheap book value is not a margin of safety when losses consume equity. The computed Lynch category is none because of losses in each of the last four years. Without clinical success or financing, intrinsic value is hard to estimate. This is a pipeline option, not a Graham-style bargain.

In plain English: Tvardi Therapeutics is a small drug developer with no product on the market. It has lost money for years and spends more cash than it brings in. At $1.04, the stock is near its 52-week low and looks inexpensive versus its accounting value, but the losses make it very speculative.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer