TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Common Stock (TPVG)

FairStock Score: 95/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for a margin of safety and a business that can earn through a cycle. TriplePoint Venture Growth is a business development company that lends to and invests in venture-backed growth companies. Its record is uneven but has improved: in fiscal 2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, it reported a net loss of $39.8M; fiscal 2024 earned $32.0M; fiscal 2025 earned $49.2M. The quarter ended 2026-06-30 showed $10.7M of net income, or $0.21 diluted EPS, while the quarter ended 2026-03-31 had $6.2M, or $0.23. That supports the FairStock classification as a turnaround (returned to profit after a loss within three years). At the close on 2026-10-13, the price was $4.48, with a market cap of $182.4M. FairStock calculations show a P/E of 4.53, P/B of 0.52, ROE of 11.45%, ROCE of 5.26%, and a Graham Number of $13.90, implying a 67.77% margin of safety. The dividend yield is 15.46%. But I do not confuse cheapness with safety. Debt/equity is 1.26, Altman Z is -0.03, trailing free cash flow is -$29.1M, and FCF yield is -16.0%. Piotroski is 6/9. As a lender to venture-stage companies, the franchise has limited durable moat and credit risk can change quickly. A sub-book price and high yield may compensate, but only if credit quality holds and cash generation improves.

In plain English: TriplePoint Venture Growth is a lender and investor in venture-backed growth companies. It lost money in fiscal 2023 but has been profitable since, and the latest reported quarters are profitable, although cash flow is negative and debt is meaningful. At $4.48, the stock looks cheap compared with reported profits and net assets, but the very high dividend and weak cash flow mean the risk is real.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer