Turning Point Brands Inc. Common Stock (TPB)

FairStock Score: 68/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $34 million in annual free cash flow (2.4% yield on market cap)
• High return on equity of 24.2% demonstrating efficient capital deployment
• Revenue growth of 144.6% demonstrates strong top-line momentum

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($36) with negative 106% margin of safety—limited downside protection

AI Analysis

Turning Point Brands Inc. Common Stock is a micro-cap consumer defensive company valued at $1.4 billion. The business generates $463 million in annual revenue with a 1.8% net margin and $34 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Turning shows healthy Altman Z-Score of 3.3 and strong 24% ROE. On valuation, the stock is reasonably priced at 24.2x earnings, with trades far above its Graham Number ($36) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 144.6% and profit growth of 239.3%. Our composite FairStock Score of 68/100 reflects above-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Turning's 145% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the consumer defensive sector. With $34 million in annual free cash flow (2.4% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the consumer defensive space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer