TransMedics Group Inc. Common Stock (TMDX)

FairStock Score: 63/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett-style investor, I start with the business: TransMedics sells the Organ Care System, a proprietary device that perfuses and monitors donor organs outside the body. That is a meaningful medical niche, but the financials matter more. Revenue has grown strongly: in fiscal 2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, $241.6M; in fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, $441.5M; and in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, $605.5M. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $189.9M, up from $157.4M in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30. But net income fell to $14.7M from $34.9M in that prior-year quarter, and the provided profit growth figure is -57.94%. That divergence tells me growth is not flowing to the bottom line. The balance sheet is not fortress-like: D/E is 1.67, Altman Z is 2.13, and ROCE is only 4.33%, even though ROE is 36.29%—a sign leverage may be flattering returns. Free cash flow of $79.0M and a 2.9% FCF yield are positives, but not enough to offset the price. At the 2026-10-13 close of $79.14, FairStock's Graham Number is $36.05, implying a negative margin of safety of -119.51%; P/B is 5.29 and EV/EBITDA is 24.11. The Lynch category is TURNAROUND, and Piotroski is 7/9. I see a promising but unproven turnaround, priced for much better execution than the latest profit line shows.

In plain English: TransMedics makes a machine that keeps donor organs working outside the body until transplant. Sales are growing, but the latest reported quarter showed much lower profit than a year earlier, and the company carries a fair amount of debt. Compared with its current earnings and accounting value, the share price looks expensive; the stock is not cheap on the numbers given.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer