Treace Medical Concepts Inc. Common Stock (TMCI)

FairStock Score: 31/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses that earn money and sell for less than they are worth. Treace Medical does neither today. It designs bunion-correction devices, including Lapiplasty, and has built a real revenue base: in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $212.7M. But in fiscal 2023, 2024, and 2025, net losses were $49.5M, $55.7M, and $59.0M, with diluted EPS of -$0.81, -$0.90, and -$0.93. The trend is not a compounding machine; it is a cash-consuming one. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, revenue was $47.2M and net loss $18.0M. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $45.4M and net loss $15.9M, or diluted EPS -$0.24. Revenue slipped versus the $47.4M reported in fiscal Q2 2025, though the loss narrowed from $17.4M. Free cash flow was -$25.0M over the trailing twelve months, a -9.4% FCF yield against the $266.6M market cap at the 2026-10-13 close. FairStock's calculations show P/B 3.94, ROE -71.99%, ROCE -17.33%, debt-to-equity 1.08, Piotroski 2/9, and Altman Z-score -0.27. That is not a margin of safety; it is a hope that adoption improves before the balance sheet weakens. The Lapiplasty platform may have switching costs for surgeons, but persistent losses, negative cash flow, and a weak financial score leave little room for error. At $4.10, I would call the price speculative versus current numbers, not a Graham bargain.

In plain English: Treace Medical Concepts makes surgical devices used to correct bunions, including the Lapiplasty system. The business is not yet profitable: it has lost money in each of the last four years and burned cash over the past twelve months. At the 2026-10-13 close of $4.10, the price looks expensive relative to its current losses and assets, though the latest quarter's loss was a bit smaller than a year ago.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer