Tredegar Corporation Common Stock (TG)

FairStock Score: 81/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look at Tredegar as a small industrial turnaround, not a wide-moat compounder. It makes aluminum extrusions and polyethylene/polypropylene films, businesses where customers have choices and pricing power is limited. At the 2026-10-13 close of $7.61, FairStock calculates a P/E of 8.10, P/B of 1.14, EV/EBITDA of 4.83 and FCF yield of 8.5% on $22.6M trailing free cash flow. The Graham Number is $11.79, leaving about 35% margin of safety. Those are Graham-style numbers. The turnaround is real in the reported figures: fiscal Q2 2026 net income was $6.0M and diluted EPS $0.17, versus fiscal Q2 2025 net income of $1.7M and EPS $0.05. FY2025 net income was $33.5M, or $0.96 per diluted share, after FY2024 lost $64.6M and FY2023 lost $105.9M. FairStock's Lynch category is TURNAROUND—returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. Financial health is mixed: debt-to-equity is 0.27, Piotroski is 7/9, but Altman Z-Score is 2.25, a grey zone, and ROCE is only 6.50%, despite ROE of 15.47%. The latest quarter data shows a 2.78% net margin, so this is a thin-margin, cyclical business. The stock is cheap if profits persist; it is a value trap if they do not. I would want to see several more quarters of positive earnings and free cash flow before trusting the turnaround.

In plain English: Tredegar makes aluminum parts and plastic films used in buildings, vehicles, and industry. It lost money in 2023 and 2024 but has recently returned to small profits. At $7.61, the stock looks cheaper than its assets and earnings suggest, but the business is still thinly profitable and sensitive to industrial demand.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer