TransAlta Corporation Ordinary Shares (TAC)

FairStock Score: 23/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $421 million in annual free cash flow (11.8% yield on market cap)

Concerns

• High leverage at 3.02x debt-to-equity increases financial risk and interest expense burden
• Revenue declining at 11.7% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss
• Altman Z-Score of -0.2 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

TransAlta Corporation Ordinary Shares is a small-cap utilities company valued at $3.6 billion. Revenue stands at $2.2 billion. From a quality standpoint, TransAlta shows distressed Altman Z-Score of -0.2 warrants caution and negative ROE indicating losses. On valuation, the stock is 3.8% FCF yield. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -11.7% and profit growth of 7.7%. The 1.6% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 23/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $421 million in annual free cash flow (11.8% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Elevated leverage at 3.0x D/E means rising interest rates or revenue weakness could strain debt covenants and force asset sales at distressed prices. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer