Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)

FairStock Score: 36/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Smurfit Westrock is a global converter of containerboard and paper packaging, a business with real scale—96,000 employees and fiscal 2025 revenue of $31.2B—but scale alone is not a moat. Packaging is cyclical and competitive, and the latest filed figures show how thin the economics can be: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $8.0B but net income only $89.0M, a 1.11% margin. Fiscal 2025 net income was $699.0M on $31.2B of revenue, and FairStock’s ROE and ROCE are just 2.71% and 2.62%. The balance sheet is not alarming, with D/E of 0.78, but an Altman Z-Score of 0.85 says the safety cushion is thin. On the positive side, the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, trailing FCF is $1.0B, FCF yield is 4.6%, and the dividend yield is 4.08%. Growth is not clean: fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025 revenue rose from $12.1B to $31.2B, but the Lynch category computed by FairStock from filed annual results is SLOW GROWER — Shrinking, citing profit -12.2% a year over three years and revenue 32.2%. Valuation is the sticking point. At the 2026-10-26 close of $42.24, FairStock shows a P/E of 44.94, P/B of 1.23, PEG of 0.11, and EV/EBITDA of 8.29. FairStock’s Graham Number is $26.97, leaving a negative margin of safety of 55.17%. I see a leveraged cyclical with improving recent quarterly profits but weak returns and a price that already assumes a lot. I would want a wider discount before calling it a Graham-style bargain.

In plain English: Smurfit Westrock makes cardboard, containerboard and paper-based packaging for customers around the world. The business looks weak right now: sales are large but profit margins are very thin and returns are low, even though the dividend is meaningful. At $42.24 on 2026-10-26, the shares look expensive against recent earnings and the company’s accounting value, so the price does not offer an obvious bargain.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer