Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock (SUPN)

FairStock Score: 41/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I start with the business. Supernus sells central nervous system medicines such as Qelbree for ADHD and GOCOVRI for Parkinson's disease dyskinesia. Revenue has been rising: in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, it reported $719.0 million, up from $661.8 million in fiscal 2024 and $607.5 million in fiscal 2023. But profits tell a shakier story. Fiscal 2024 produced $73.9 million of net income, while fiscal 2025 flipped to a $38.5 million loss. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $219.1 million, yet net income was negative $58.4 million with diluted EPS of negative $1.01. That is not the steady earnings stream I want. Financial health has some support: D/E 0.04 and Altman Z 4.60 as a FairStock calculation. TTM free cash flow was $18.8 million, but FCF yield was only 0.8%. ROCE was 0.39%, ROE was negative 10.49%, and Piotroski was 3/9, all FairStock calculations. At the 2026-10-13 close of $42.01, P/B was 2.37 and P/E was negative 21.88. Negative earnings make the P/E meaningless; a cash-flow yield under 1% offers little margin of safety. FairStock's Lynch category is TURNAROUND, because the latest year showed a loss after earlier profits. Turnarounds can work, but they need improving margins and durable products. I see revenue growth but no proof of normalized profitability. This looks more like a speculative recovery than a Graham bargain.

In plain English: Supernus makes medicines for brain and nervous system conditions, including ADHD and Parkinson's-related movement problems. Sales are growing, but the company lost money in its latest reported year and in its latest quarter. At $42.01, the stock looks expensive compared with its current profits and cash flow, and the business looks unstable rather than strong.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer