Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) Common Stock (SMG)

FairStock Score: 47/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Scotts Miracle-Gro as a seasonal consumer-products business. The latest filed quarter, fiscal Q3 2026 ended 2026-06-27, showed revenue of $1.2B and net income of $112.2M, or diluted EPS of $1.90. That was profitable, but below fiscal Q3 2025, when revenue was also $1.2B and net income was $149.1M. Full-year FY2025 revenue was $3.4B and net income $145.2M, a recovery from FY2024's net loss of $34.9M. The turnaround is real, but the trend is not yet strong. Fiscal Q1 2026 lost $125.0M, showing how seasonal and lumpy this business is. At $50.10 on 2026-10-13, FairStock calculates a P/E of 17.89, EV/EBITDA of 11.14, and FCF yield of 9.0% on $263.3M trailing free cash flow. The 5.27% dividend yield is attractive if cash flow holds. ROCE of 9.29% is positive but modest. The Altman Z-Score of 1.38 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggest balance-sheet and quality concerns. The FairStock Score is 47/100 and Lynch category is TURNAROUND because it returned to profit after a loss within three years. I do not see a wide moat in these numbers; revenue slipped from $3.6B in FY2024 to $3.4B in FY2025, and profits remain volatile. The price is not demanding on cash flow, but it reflects a business still proving its consistency. I would want evidence that recent profit recovery can be sustained through the seasonal cycle before calling it a classic Graham bargain.

In plain English: Scotts Miracle-Gro sells lawn and garden products, including fertilizers, seeds, weed controls, and indoor gardening supplies. The business has swung back to profit after losses, but recent sales and profits are weaker than a year earlier, and financial safety looks weak. At $50.10 on 2026-10-13, the price looks roughly fair rather than clearly cheap given the uneven results.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-27) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-28) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-12-27) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-28) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-09-30) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-09-30) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-09-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer