Sera Prognostics Inc. Class A Common Stock (SERA)

FairStock Score: 42/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I look for a durable business earning real cash. Sera Prognostics does not yet fit that description. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was only $30,000 while net loss was $9.1 million. Revenue did rise from $17,000 in fiscal Q2 2025, but the absolute level is microscopic. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $81,000 against a net loss of $31.9 million. Fiscal 2024 had $77,000 of revenue and a $32.9 million loss, and fiscal 2023 had $306,000 of revenue and a $36.2 million loss. This is not a compounding earnings machine; it is a pre-commercial medical device company consuming capital. Trailing free cash flow was negative $28.2 million, a -27.4% FCF yield on the $103 million market cap, a FairStock calculation. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.05, but Altman Z-score -3.11 and Piotroski F-score 3/9 flag financial weakness. ROE of -45.03% and ROCE of -23.48%, both FairStock calculations, show capital destruction. At the 2026-10-13 close of $2.04, P/E is -3.09 and P/B is 1.35, also FairStock calculations. No Peter Lynch category fits because the company lost money in each of the last four years. Without evidence of profitable scale or a durable moat, the current price offers no margin of safety to me.

In plain English: Sera Prognostics makes a blood test for pregnant women and related pregnancy health products. The business is very small and losing money: in the latest reported quarter it had $30,000 of revenue and lost $9.1 million. At $2.04 a share, the price looks expensive compared with current sales and profits, even though the company has little debt and trades near its accounting value.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer