Shoe Carnival Inc. Common Stock (SCVL)

FairStock Score: 51/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

At the 2026-07-17 close of $14.49, Shoe Carnival trades near the bottom of its 52-week range of $14.48-$21.61. Mr. Market is asking $512.9 million for a family footwear retailer with $26.6 million of trailing free cash flow, a 5.2% FCF yield, and a 3.68% dividend yield. FairStock calculations put the Graham Number at $27.66, implying a 47.61% margin of safety, and the shares sell for 0.58 times book. That is the sort of statistical cheapness that draws attention. But cheapness alone is not quality. The business earns only 5.62% on equity and 3.39% on capital employed; those are not the returns of a durable franchise. Revenue growth is -2.52%, profit growth is -160.24%, and in the latest reported quarter—fiscal Q2 2026—revenue was $270.7 million with a net loss of $5.6 million and a -2.08% margin. A retailer with no clear moat, heavy competition, and a 1.40 beta can see its earnings vanish quickly. The balance sheet has 0.54 debt-to-equity, Piotroski 5/9, and Altman Z 2.19, a grey zone that warrants caution. FairStock’s 51/100 score and no Lynch category—because only 0 years of filed results are available under its rules—tell me the data record is thin or inconsistent. EV/EBITDA of 8.74 is not demanding, but if profits are falling, low multiples can be a trap. I would want evidence of stable same-store sales, recovering margins, and consistent free cash flow before trusting the discount. The asset value and dividend are real supports; the operating trend is not.

In plain English: Shoe Carnival is a family footwear retailer that sells shoes through stores and online. The business looks weak right now: sales slipped, and the latest quarter had a loss. The stock price looks cheap compared with the company’s assets and profits, but the weak results make that cheapness uncertain.

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Data as of 2026-07-17 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer