Safety Insurance Group Inc. Common Stock (SAFT)

FairStock Score: 84/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look at Safety Insurance as a small, regional property-and-casualty insurer with a simple model: private passenger auto, commercial auto, and homeowner coverage, mostly in Massachusetts. That local focus can create agent loyalty and pricing knowledge, but it also concentrates risk. The filed numbers show why this is not a fast compounder. Revenue went from $931.0M in fiscal 2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, to $1.1B in fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, and $1.3B in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, yet profit has been uneven: net income was $18.9M in fiscal 2023, $70.7M in fiscal 2024, and $99.3M in fiscal 2025. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, Safety reported a net loss of $14.3M, or $0.99 per diluted share; in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, it earned $34.5M, or $2.36 per diluted share, on $325.7M of revenue. That swing is typical of underwriting and claims volatility. The balance sheet looks conservative—D/E of 0.07—but FairStock's calculated ROE of 7.84% and ROCE of 2.31% are modest. At the 2026-10-13 close of $103.86, FairStock calculates a P/E of 22.34, P/B of 1.74, and dividend yield of 3.55%. For a low-beta, slow-growing insurer with a 7.84% ROE, that is not a bargain. The computed Lynch category is SLOW GROWER — Shrinking: profit -6.4% a year over five years and revenue 8.4%, which warns that the recent profit rebound may not be a durable trend. I would want the combined ratio, reserve development, and book value growth before paying up. CET1 and NIM are bank measures not applicable here; the insurer-specific combined ratio is not in the data.

In plain English: Safety Insurance sells car and home insurance, mostly in Massachusetts. It has low debt and pays a decent dividend, but profits have bounced around and the long-run growth record is slow. At the recent price, the shares look full rather than cheap compared with the company's earnings and net worth.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer