Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. Common Stock (REFI)

FairStock Score: 76/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I look first at price versus conservatively estimated worth, then at business durability. Chicago Atlantic is a commercial mortgage REIT focused on senior loans to state-licensed cannabis operators. That niche is specialized, but the moat is narrow: it rests on underwriting and relationships rather than a wide, durable franchise. The numbers show profitability. In FY2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, net income was $36.0M and diluted EPS $1.68; in FY2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, net income was $37.0M and EPS $1.88; and in FY2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, net income was $38.7M and EPS $2.11. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was $7.5M and diluted EPS $0.34, down from net income of $8.9M and EPS $0.41 in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30. So earnings are not compounding; they are drifting lower. FairStock calculates a P/E of 6.70 and a P/B of 0.64 using the 2026-10-13 close of $9.11. That is statistically cheap, but below-book pricing often signals doubt about loan marks or future credit losses. FairStock also calculates ROE of 9.61% and ROCE of 6.41%, with D/E of 0.47. The 17.14% dividend yield is the siren here: it is attractive only if earnings and book value hold. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a FairStock score of 76/100 suggest mixed quality, and FairStock labels it a slow grower, citing 3.7% annual profit growth over three years, even though the filed annual net income I can see declines from FY2023 to FY2025. I cannot assess CET1, net interest margin, or combined ratio because they are not in the data. Credit quality and loan-loss trends are the crux.

In plain English: Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance is a real estate finance company that makes loans secured by commercial property, mostly to state-licensed cannabis businesses. It is profitable and trades below its accounting net worth, but its profits have slipped recently and the dividend is much higher than its reported earnings. The price looks cheap on the numbers given, while carrying lending and regulatory risk.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer