Redwire Corporation Common Stock (RDW)

FairStock Score: 46/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses that produce predictable earnings and sell at a sensible price. Redwire supplies space infrastructure and components such as sensors, avionics, cameras, and payloads to government and commercial customers. Its top line is growing: in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $335.4 million, up from $304.1 million in fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, and $243.8 million in fiscal 2023, the year ended 2023-12-31. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $117.1 million. But growth has not produced profits. Net losses were $27.3 million in fiscal 2023, $114.3 million in fiscal 2024, and $226.6 million in fiscal 2025. In fiscal Q2 2026, net loss was $41.0 million; in fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, net loss was $76.5 million. The latest quarterly margin was -35.00%. Trailing free cash flow was -$106.0 million, which FairStock turns into an FCF yield of -4.6%. That is not earning power. Financial health is mixed: D/E is 0.06 and FairStock's Altman Z-Score is 4.22, but FairStock's Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, and FairStock's ROE is -18.15% and ROCE is -6.10%. The moat, if any, would come from qualification and switching costs in space and defense, but it has not yet shown up in returns. At the 2026-10-13 close of $9.16, FairStock calculates P/E -7.63 and P/B 1.39; beta is 3.09, and FairStock Score is 46/100. A negative P/E and negative FCF yield mean there is no earnings-based margin of safety. The Lynch category is none because losses occurred in each of the last four years. I would need evidence of sustainable positive cash flow before calling this a value investment.

In plain English: Redwire makes parts and systems used in space, mostly for government and commercial customers. Sales are growing quickly, but the company is still losing money and burning cash, with losses in each of the last four years. At the recent stock price, the market is paying a lot for future success; based on current profits the price looks expensive, though it is not expensive compared with the company's accounting value.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer