Post Holdings Inc. Common Stock (POST)

FairStock Score: 44/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $256 million in annual free cash flow (5.1% yield on market cap)
• Strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicating robust financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics
• Established organization with 13,180 employees providing operational scale

Concerns

• High leverage at 2.15x debt-to-equity increases financial risk and interest expense burden
• Altman Z-Score of 0.9 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Post Holdings Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap consumer defensive company valued at $5.0 billion. The business generates $8.4 billion in annual revenue with a 1.2% net margin and $256 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Post shows near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicating exceptional financial health and distressed Altman Z-Score of 0.9 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is reasonably priced at 19.2x earnings, with trades above its Graham Number with a negative 11% margin. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 10.1% and profit growth of -14.6%. Our composite FairStock Score of 44/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $256 million in annual free cash flow (5.1% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Elevated leverage at 2.1x D/E means rising interest rates or revenue weakness could strain debt covenants and force asset sales at distressed prices. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer