Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

FairStock Score: 42/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Packaging Corporation of America as a cyclical but reasonably sturdy paper and containerboard business. It sells corrugated shipping containers and uncoated freesheet, products tied to real economic activity rather than fashion. The filed record shows growth: fiscal 2025 revenue was $9.0B versus $8.4B in fiscal 2024 and $7.8B in fiscal 2023. But profit has flattened: fiscal 2025 net income was $774.1M and diluted EPS $8.58, compared with $805.1M and $8.93 in fiscal 2024. More recently, in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $2.5B and net income $192.1M, or $2.15 per diluted share, versus $2.2B, $241.5M, and $2.67 in fiscal Q2 2025. That is real pressure. FairStock classifies it as a STALWART, with five-year profit growth of 10.9% a year and revenue growth of 6.2%, so the long record is steadier than the latest quarter. Balance-sheet signals are decent: FairStock's Piotroski F-score is 8/9, Altman Z-score 3.16, ROE 14.89%, ROCE 8.28%, and debt/equity 0.94. Free cash flow is $742.4M, a 3.3% FCF yield. The trouble is price. At the 2026-10-26 close of $253.74, FairStock shows P/E 32.95, P/B 4.82, EV/EBITDA 14.34, and a Graham Number of $95.21, a -159.73% margin of safety. FairStock Score is 42/100. This is a good business at a full price; the stock needs either better earnings or a lower price before it offers a Graham-style margin of safety.

In plain English: Packaging Corporation of America makes cardboard boxes and paper products in North America. The business looks profitable and financially solid, but recent quarterly profit was lower than a year earlier. At the 2026-10-26 close of $253.74, the share price looks expensive compared with the company's earnings and accounting value.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer