Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)

FairStock Score: 83/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses that earn good returns on capital and sell at sensible prices. Pagaya is an AI-driven credit infrastructure company, chiefly monetizing declined loan applications for partners and connecting them to institutional investors. Its recent filed results show real improvement: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $365.6M and net income was $45.3M, compared with revenue of $317.7M and net income of $16.7M in fiscal Q2 2025. For FY2025, revenue was $1.3B and net income was $81.4M, a sharp reversal from the FY2024 net loss of $401.4M. FairStock's calculations at the 2026-10-13 close show a P/E of 12.64, P/B of 2.50, ROE of 19.46%, ROCE of 13.97%, and FCF yield of 14.5%. The Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and Altman Z-Score of 1.75 suggest improving but not fortress-like financial health. The balance sheet carries D/E of 1.34, so leverage matters. The Graham Number is $15.04, and at $17.82 the margin of safety is negative 18.48%—not a bargain by that defensive measure. The PEG ratio of 0.07 is striking, but beta of 5.37 warns that the market price is highly volatile. Lynch's computed category is TURNAROUND, because it returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. I see a real operating recovery and cash generation, but the moat is unproven and the valuation is not clearly cheap on asset-based terms. This is a show-me story.

In plain English: Pagaya is a technology company that uses AI to help lenders approve more loans by connecting declined applications with investors. The business has turned profitable and is growing: sales and profits rose in the latest reported quarter, and it produces significant cash. At $17.82, the stock looks a bit expensive against a conservative value check, though its recent profits make it less clear-cut.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K/A (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K/A (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K/A (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer