PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

FairStock Score: 50/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for a durable business at a sensible price. PACCAR makes heavy trucks, engines, parts, and finances equipment purchases through Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Parts and Financial Services pieces can cushion the cycle, but FairStock classifies it as CYCLICAL because earnings follow the economic cycle. The filed numbers show why: in fiscal year 2023, the period ended 2023-12-31, revenue was $35.1B, net income $4.6B, and diluted EPS $8.76; in fiscal year 2024, the period ended 2024-12-31, revenue was $33.7B, net income $4.2B, and diluted EPS $7.90; in fiscal year 2025, the period ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $28.4B, net income $2.4B, and diluted EPS $4.51. That is a serious downcycle. Still, the latest filed quarter, fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, had revenue $7.5B and net income $752.0M, above fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, net income of $723.8M, while diluted EPS rose to $1.43 from $1.37. Fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, showed $6.8B revenue, $605.3M net income, and $1.15 diluted EPS, so sequential momentum is positive. Financial health looks acceptable: Piotroski F-Score 7/9, Altman Z-Score 2.93, and TTM free cash flow $3.0B, a 5.2% FCF yield. But the price at the 2026-10-13 close of $107.98 gives FairStock P/E 22.73, P/B 2.80, PEG 5.83, EV/EBITDA 18.21, ROE 12.76%, ROCE 4.12%, and D/E 0.73. The Graham Number is $64.24, implying a -68.09% margin of safety. I see a good franchise, but the price already assumes a lot and the cycle remains the key risk.

In plain English: PACCAR makes heavy trucks, engines, parts, and provides financing for truck buyers. The business earned more in the quarter ended June 30, 2026 than a year earlier, but profit has fallen sharply from its 2023 peak. At $107.98, the shares look expensive compared with the company's book value and a conservative earnings-based value, even though it generates solid cash.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer