Par Pacific Holdings Inc. Common Stock (PARR)

FairStock Score: 77/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $243 million in annual free cash flow (7.6% yield on market cap)
• High return on equity of 26.8% demonstrating efficient capital deployment
• FairStock composite score of 77/100 places it in the top tier across value, quality, and momentum factors

Concerns

• Revenue declining at 1.0% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss
• Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap energy company valued at $3.2 billion. The business generates $7.5 billion in annual revenue with a 1.0% net margin and $243 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Par shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.8 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is deeply undervalued on a P/E basis at 8.9x, with a modest 8% margin of safety vs Graham Number. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -1.0% and profit growth of 239.5%. Our composite FairStock Score of 77/100 reflects strong fundamentals overall. This combination of reasonable valuation, solid returns, and conservative leverage makes it worth a closer look for value-oriented portfolios.

Bull Case

The market underappreciates Par's consistent 27% ROE at just 9x earnings—a re-rating toward sector peers could unlock 30-50% upside. With $243 million in annual free cash flow (7.6% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the energy space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer