Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN)

FairStock Score: 16/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.41, providing financial flexibility

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($2) with negative 434% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Currently unprofitable—sustained losses could lead to dilutive capital raises or balance sheet deterioration
• Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk
• No meaningful dividend despite modest growth—total return depends entirely on multiple expansion

AI Analysis

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common is a micro-cap industrials company valued at $498 million. Revenue stands at $852 million, though the company is currently unprofitable. From a quality standpoint, Orion shows distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.8 warrants caution and modest 2% ROE. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 208.7x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($2) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 7.5% and profit growth of -103.5%. Our composite FairStock Score of 16/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Without profitability, this remains speculative—suitable only for those with high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

At 209x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer