Orchid Island Capital Inc. Common Stock (ORC)

FairStock Score: 85/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am looking at a mortgage REIT, not an operating business with a moat. Orchid Island Capital invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities. The portfolio is backed by single-family loans and carries limited credit risk because it is Agency paper, but prepayment, duration and leverage risk are the real drivers. There is no pricing power here; returns come from spread, hedging and balance-sheet management. The filed record is volatile. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was $89.2M and diluted EPS was $0.44. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, it lost $20.0M, or $0.11 per diluted share. Fiscal year 2025, ended 2025-12-31, earned $159.0M, or $1.24 per diluted share, after fiscal year 2023, ended 2023-12-31, lost $39.2M, or $0.89 per diluted share. That is why FairStock classifies it as TURNAROUND—returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. At the 2026-10-13 close of $5.06, FairStock calculations show P/B 0.70, P/E 2.89, ROE 20.80%, ROCE 2.36%, D/E 7.70, Piotroski F-Score 4/9, and a 19.87% dividend yield. The discount to book and high yield look cheap, but a 7.70 debt-to-equity ratio means book value can move violently with rates. The low ROCE and middling Piotroski score warn that reported profits are not a stable franchise. The data does not include CET1, net interest margin or combined-ratio figures, so I cannot judge bank-style capital or underwriting the way I could for a bank or insurer. This is a leveraged, rate-sensitive vehicle: cheap only if book value holds and spreads stay favorable.

In plain English: Orchid Island Capital owns pools of U.S. home mortgage loans packaged by government-related agencies. Its profits swing sharply with interest rates and borrowing costs; recent results bounced from losses to large profits. The stock trades below the value of its reported assets and pays a very high dividend, but that can be risky when rates move.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer