Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. Common Stock (OLLI)

FairStock Score: 58/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $121 million in annual free cash flow (2.3% yield on market cap)
• Strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicating robust financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics
• Solid return on equity of 13.4% above cost of capital
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.36, providing financial flexibility
• Altman Z-Score of 4.4 confirms minimal bankruptcy risk and strong solvency

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($52) with negative 68% margin of safety—limited downside protection

AI Analysis

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap consumer defensive company valued at $5.3 billion. The business generates $2.6 billion in annual revenue with a 3.2% net margin and $121 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Ollie's shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and healthy Altman Z-Score of 4.4. On valuation, the stock is reasonably priced at 22.7x earnings, with trades above its Graham Number with a negative 68% margin. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 16.8% and profit growth of 24.8%. Our composite FairStock Score of 58/100 reflects mixed fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Ollie's's 17% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the consumer defensive sector. With $121 million in annual free cash flow (2.3% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the consumer defensive space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer