Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. Common Stock (OLLI)

FairStock Score: 58/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for understandable businesses with durable economics and a sensible price. Ollie's is understandable: it buys closeout and excess inventory and sells it at a discount. The recent tape is encouraging. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-08-01, revenue was $741.3M and net income was $85.5M, or diluted EPS of $1.42. That compares with fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-08-02, when revenue was $679.6M, net income was $61.3M, and diluted EPS was $0.99. So sales rose about 9% and profits about 39% year over year. For full fiscal year 2025, revenue was $2.6B, net income $240.6M, and diluted EPS $3.89, versus fiscal year 2024 revenue $2.3B, net income $199.8M, and diluted EPS $3.23. The balance sheet is conservative: D/E 0.38, Altman Z-Score 4.16, Piotroski 7/9. TTM free cash flow is $223.2M, a 4.3% FCF yield. But the long-term record is not a compounder: FairStock labels it a slow grower, shrinking, with profit -0.2% a year over five years and revenue 7.9%. At the 2026-10-13 close of $88.33, FairStock calculates P/E 19.76, P/B 2.78, PEG 0.50, EV/EBITDA 13.85, and Graham Number $56.58, a -56.12% margin of safety. ROCE is 6.74%, hardly a toll bridge. A low beta and defensive category help, but the price already assumes better days. I would want a wider discount to conservative value before calling it a bargain.

In plain English: Ollie's sells closeout and excess goods at bargain prices in the United States. The business looks mixed: recent sales and profits improved, but its longer-term profit record is flat. At the 2026-10-13 closing price of $88.33, the shares look expensive compared with a conservative estimate from its profits and assets.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-08-01) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-05-02) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-11-01) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-08-02) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2025-02-01) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2024-02-03)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer