Nexstar Media Group Inc. Common Stock (NXST)

FairStock Score: 24/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am a value investor who starts with price and then asks what the business is worth. Nexstar owns local television stations and related digital advertising, a business with real assets and a 4.75% dividend yield at the 2026-10-13 close. Cash generation is the attraction: trailing free cash flow is $743.0M, a 15.0% FCF yield that FairStock calculates against the $4.9B market cap. But the earnings record is erratic. In fiscal 2024, revenue was $5.4B and net income $722.0M, or $21.41 per diluted share. In fiscal 2025, revenue fell to $4.9B, net income dropped to $109.0M, and diluted EPS was $3.00. That is not a stable earnings stream. The balance sheet worries me more: debt-to-equity is 5.34, and FairStock's Altman Z-Score of 0.71 signals financial stress. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is middling. At $160.56, the FairStock P/E is 30.47, and the price sits 71.96% above the $93.37 Graham Number, so I see no margin of safety. FairStock's Lynch category is SLOW GROWER — Shrinking: profit -33.1% a year over five years, revenue 1.9%. Some quarters show life—fiscal Q1 2026 net income was $164.0M and fiscal Q2 2026 net income was $120.0M—but the trend and leverage keep this in the 'too hard' pile unless cash flow stabilizes and debt falls.

In plain English: Nexstar owns and operates local TV stations and related digital advertising. It still makes a lot of cash, but its profit fell sharply from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2025, and the stock price at the 2026-10-13 close looks high compared with those earnings. The dividend is sizable, but the company carries a lot of debt, so the business looks mixed rather than clearly strong.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer