Novavax Inc. Common Stock (NVAX)

FairStock Score: 94/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for durable earnings and a margin of safety. Novavax fails several Graham tests. In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $56.7M and net loss was $53.4M, with a -94.16% margin. A year earlier, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, revenue was $239.2M and net income was $106.5M. Yes, fiscal 2025 produced $1.1B revenue and $440.3M net income, or $2.58 diluted EPS. But fiscal 2023 lost $545.1M and fiscal 2024 lost $187.5M. FairStock calls it a TURNAROUND because it returned to profit after a loss within three years, but the latest quarter shows no reliable turn. FairStock's Piotroski F-Score is 0/9 and Altman Z-Score is -5.26, both warnings. Trailing free cash flow is -$43.0M, FCF yield -2.0%, ROCE -6.51%. The balance sheet data is incomplete, with D/E and ROE not available, adding uncertainty. At the 2026-10-13 close of $12.82, FairStock calculates a P/E of -8.11. Price is near the top of its 52-week range of $6.20-$13.39 despite losses. The company has vaccines and collaborations, but vaccine revenue is lumpy and competitive. FairStock Score 94/100 may capture optionality, but I see speculation rather than a durable moat. I would need consistent positive cash flow and stable revenue before calling this a value opportunity.

In plain English: Novavax makes vaccines, including a COVID-19 vaccine and a malaria vaccine. The business looks weak right now: in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $56.7 million and the company lost $53.4 million, while a year earlier it earned $106.5 million. At $12.82 a share, the price looks expensive compared with current losses, though the stock is near the top of its one-year price range.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer