Natera Inc. Common Stock (NTRA)

FairStock Score: 45/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Natera as a Graham-style student: what is proven, what is paid, and what margin of safety exists. The company sells molecular diagnostics, including Signatera for cancer recurrence monitoring and Empower for hereditary cancer screening. Revenue is clearly expanding: in FY2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $2.3B, and in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $752.8M with net income of $-67.0M. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, revenue was $696.6M and net income was $-85.1M. In fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, revenue was $546.6M and net income was $-100.9M. Sales grew and losses narrowed year over year, but the company remains unprofitable. It has lost money in each of the last four years, so the computed Lynch category is none. Free cash flow is $51.2M, but at a $57.0B market cap, the FCF yield is only 0.1%. At the 2026-10-13 close of $395.65, FairStock shows P/E -288.80, P/B 31.20, ROE -12.54%, ROCE -8.08%, and Piotroski 6/9. The Altman Z-Score of 40.08 suggests low bankruptcy risk, and D/E 0.13 is modest. The competitive question is whether Signatera's clinical evidence and payer relationships create a durable moat; diagnostics can be competitive, but personalized ctDNA monitoring may have switching costs if oncologists build workflows around it. I see a high-quality growth story not yet proven by profits. The price already discounts substantial future success. Without consistent earnings and much stronger free cash flow, there is little Graham margin of safety; the stock is a speculation on future execution, not a value bargain.

In plain English: Natera sells molecular tests, including blood tests for cancer monitoring and genetic screening. The business is growing sales quickly, but it still loses money and has not made a profit in the last four years. At the $395.65 close on 2026-10-13, the stock looks expensive compared with current profits and the value of its assets.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer