NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)

FairStock Score: 46/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I want a durable business at a discount. NRG sells electricity and home services, a useful business, but its moat is limited because power retailing is competitive, regulated, and capital-intensive. The record is uneven. In fiscal 2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, revenue was $28.3B, net loss was $202M, and diluted EPS was -$1.12. By fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue reached $30.3B, net income $864M, and diluted EPS $4.01. Yet fiscal 2024 was stronger, with net income $1.1B and diluted EPS $4.99, so fiscal 2025 profit fell. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, NRG reported revenue $7.3B, net income $506M, and diluted EPS $2.31, a sharp rebound from fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, when it lost $104M and diluted EPS was -$0.62. That supports the Lynch label of TURNAROUND, but one quarter does not prove durable earnings power. Financial health gives me pause. Debt-to-equity is 4.83, and FairStock's Altman Z-score is 0.73, a warning sign. FairStock's ROCE is only 4.06%, while ROE is 23.77%, probably flattered by leverage. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. At the close on 2026-10-13, the price was $107.18; FairStock's P/E is 27.91, P/B 5.36, EV/EBITDA 12.27, and Graham Number $44.67. That implies a margin of safety of -139.94%, meaning the price is far above the Graham-style value. The Piotroski F-score of 7/9 is respectable. Still, I see a leveraged, cyclical turnaround already priced for success.

In plain English: NRG Energy sells electricity and home services like smart home security in the U.S. and Canada. The business swung from a loss in fiscal 2023 to a profit in fiscal 2025, but that profit was smaller than fiscal 2024 and debt is very high. At the recent price of $107.18, the shares look expensive compared with the company's profits, cash flow, and assets.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer