Northern Oil and Gas Inc. Common Stock (NOG)

FairStock Score: 33/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for durable economics and a margin of safety. Northern Oil and Gas is a small independent E&P, with only 64 employees, that acquires and develops U.S. oil and gas properties. The provided Lynch category is CYCLICAL — Oil & Gas E&P, because earnings follow the economic cycle, and the filed results show that plainly. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $745.2M, net income was $236.6M, and diluted EPS was $2.19. But in fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, revenue was $5.0M, net income was -$522.8M, and diluted EPS was -$5.31. Fiscal Q3 2025, the quarter ended 2025-09-30, had a net loss of $129.1M. For full-year 2025, revenue was $2.5B but net income was only $38.8M, or $0.39 per diluted share, far below FY2024 net income of $520.3M, or $5.14 per diluted share. Financial health is the weak spot. FairStock's calculations from the provided data show debt-to-equity of 1.37, an Altman Z-Score of 0.74, trailing free cash flow of -$294.2M, and a -10.5% FCF yield. A Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 is respectable, but the 7.19% dividend yield looks hard to cover while free cash flow is negative. At the 2026-10-13 close of $26.39, FairStock calculates a P/E of -5.46, P/B of 1.40, EV/EBITDA of 17.08, ROE of -22.05%, and ROCE of 4.60%. Negative trailing earnings make the P/E meaningless, and 17x EV/EBITDA is not a bargain for a cyclical E&P. I would need normalized cash flow and a stronger balance sheet before calling this a value opportunity.

In plain English: Northern Oil and Gas buys and develops oil and gas properties in the United States. The business looks uneven: it lost money over the last year, recently had a profitable quarter, and currently spends more cash than it brings in. At the 2026-10-13 close, the price looks roughly fair relative to its accounting net worth, but the weak cash flow and heavy debt make it risky rather than clearly cheap.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer