Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. Common Stock (NGVC)

FairStock Score: 58/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for a business I can understand, bought at a sensible price. Natural Grocers is understandable: it sells natural and organic groceries and supplements through Vitamin Cottage stores. The record is respectable: in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-09-30, revenue was $1.3B, net income $46.4M, and diluted EPS $2.00; in fiscal 2024 net income was $33.9M, EPS $1.47; in fiscal 2023 net income was $23.2M, EPS $1.02. FairStock's Lynch rule calls it a stalwart, with 18.3% annual profit growth and 5.1% revenue growth over five years. Returns on equity are high at 21.56%, and it pays a 1.94% dividend while generating $22.2M of trailing free cash flow. But the moat is not wide. Grocery is competitive, margins are thin—3.31% net margin in the quarter ended 2026-06-30—and return on capital employed is only 5.69%. Debt to equity is 1.35, and the Altman Z-Score of 1.88 is not a margin-of-safety cushion. Growth has stalled: revenue growth of 1.84% and profit growth of -4.58% by FairStock's calculations. In fiscal Q3 2026, revenue rose to $334.7M from $328.7M a year earlier, but net income fell to $11.1M from $11.6M and EPS slipped to $0.48 from $0.50. The price of $30.26 on 2026-10-13 gives a P/E of 14.76 and P/B of 2.91; the Graham Number is $21.89, so the margin of safety is -38.24%. I would call this a fair-to-full price for a steady but not fortress-like retailer.

In plain English: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage runs natural and organic grocery and supplement stores. The business is stable and profitable, but sales growth is slow and profit recently slipped. At $30.26, the stock looks a little expensive compared with its earnings and conservative value measures.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-12-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-09-30) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-09-30) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-09-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer