NextDecade Corporation Common Stock (NEXT)

FairStock Score: 10/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett/Graham investor, I start with what is knowable. NextDecade is a 360-employee developer of natural-gas liquefaction and export facilities in Texas, plus carbon capture. The attraction is large-scale infrastructure; the problem is that the filed figures show no revenue and no stable profits. In fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, net income was -$429.6 million. Fiscal 2024 showed net income of $277.4 million, but diluted EPS was -$0.24, and fiscal 2023 had a net loss of $221.6 million. The Lynch category is Turnaround—loss in latest year after earlier profits—which fits. Recent quarters remain weak: in fiscal Q1 2026, quarter ended 2026-03-31, net loss was $195.0 million; in fiscal Q2 2026, quarter ended 2026-06-30, net loss narrowed to $60.2 million. Still, trailing free cash flow is -$5.7 billion, a -316.4% FCF yield against a $1.8 billion market cap, so the operation consumes enormous capital. Debt-to-equity is 3.78, Altman Z is -0.08, Piotroski is 2/9, and FairStock ROE is -15.76% with ROCE -1.23%. Valuation offers no Graham margin of safety: at the 2026-10-13 close of $6.80, FairStock P/B is 21.17 and P/E is -5.00, with a FairStock score of 10/100. I cannot appraise a moat from no revenue, no dividend, and negative returns. Growth is unproven; FairStock profit growth is -7.49% and revenue growth is N/A. A turnaround could work if cash burn stops, but I would need evidence, not hope.

In plain English: NextDecade is building facilities to turn natural gas into liquid for export, along with a carbon capture project. Based on the numbers given, the business looks weak right now: it has been losing money and using large amounts of cash. At the recent price of $6.80 on 2026-10-13, the stock looks expensive compared with its current earnings and what the company owns on paper.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer