nCino Inc. Common Stock (NCNO)

FairStock Score: 49/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $145 million in annual free cash flow (7.4% yield on market cap)
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.26, providing financial flexibility

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($3) with negative 425% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk
• No meaningful dividend despite modest growth—total return depends entirely on multiple expansion

AI Analysis

nCino Inc. Common Stock is a micro-cap technology company valued at $1.9 billion. The business generates $595 million in annual revenue with a 1.4% net margin and $145 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, nCino shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.8 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 339.0x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($3) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 5.9% and profit growth of 144.8%. Our composite FairStock Score of 49/100 reflects mixed fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $145 million in annual free cash flow (7.4% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 339x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer