National CineMedia Inc. Common Stock (NCMI)

FairStock Score: 57/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach National CineMedia as a possible turnaround, not a compounding machine. It sells advertising in movie theaters and lobbies, so its fortunes ride on cinema attendance and advertiser demand. I see little evidence of a wide moat; the screen network may be hard to replicate, but the company has limited control over foot traffic or ad pricing. The financials explain the TURNAROUND label. In FY2025 (ended 2026-01-01), revenue was $243.2M and net income was -$10.6M, or -$0.11 per diluted share. In Q2 2026 (ended 2026-07-02), revenue was $58.4M versus $51.8M in Q2 2025 (ended 2025-06-26), yet net loss was -$9.9M. Q1 2026 (ended 2026-04-02) had a -$28.6M net loss on $34.0M of revenue, so results are lumpy. The FY2023 profit of $705.2M looks non-recurring and not a reliable base. On the positive side, debt is low with D/E 0.07. Trailing free cash flow is $19.3M, a 9.3% FCF yield on the $207.9M market cap. At the 2026-10-13 close of $2.21, P/B is 0.62 and EV/EBITDA is 6.13, which is not demanding. But ROE is -2.28%, ROCE is -1.86%, P/E is -27.63, and Altman Z is 1.89. Piotroski is 5/9. Mr. Market is pricing doubt. If the losses reverse, the shares could prove cheap; if not, a low valuation can persist. The key question is whether cash earnings become durable.

In plain English: National CineMedia sells advertising shown on movie screens and in theater lobbies. The business looks weak right now because it lost money in its latest reported year and latest quarter, even though revenue has grown. At $2.21, the price looks cheap compared with its assets and cash flow, but the losses make it risky and uncertain.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-02) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-02) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-25) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-26) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-01) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-26) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-28)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer